血猫
发表于 2007-10-30 22:17
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三重底：三重底既是头肩底的变异形态，也是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">W</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">形底的复合形态，三重底相对于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">W</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">形底和头肩底而言比较少见，却又是比后两者更加坚实的底部形态，而且形态形成后的上攻力度也更强。其形态的成立必须等待有效向上突破颈线位时才能最终确认。因为，三重底突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者即使在形态确立后介入，仍有较大的获利空间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> ■三重底的研判技巧：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是：三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的，三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形，未来发展极有可能向三重底演化，至于最终是否能构筑成三重底，并形成一轮上升行情，还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、三重底形态的三次低点时间，通常至少要保持在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">～</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">15</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">个交易日以上，如果时间间隔过小，往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中，底部形态的构筑基础不牢固，即使形成了三重底，由于其形态过小，后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天，第二和第三低点之间间隔</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天，只是勉强符合标准。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、三重底的三次上攻行情中，成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态，否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时，在期间的两次上升行情中，成交量始终不能有效放大的话，将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中，如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量，仍然会功败垂成。所以，三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位，才能有望展开新一轮升势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></p>
血猫
发表于 2007-10-30 22:17
<font face="宋体">投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作，或者已经从表面上形成了三重底，就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入，这是非常危险的。因为，有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造，但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话，三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长，底部较为坚实。因此，突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成，股价成功突破颈线位之后，才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入，虽然有可能获取更多地利润，但从风险收益比率方面计算，反而得不偿失。</font><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> ■三重底的买卖时机：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> 三重底的最佳买入时机是：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在股价有突破颈线位的确定性趋势并且有成交量伴随时是激进型投资者买入时机。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在股价已经成功突破颈线位时是成熟型投资者买入时机。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在股价已经有效突破颈线位后的回档确认时是稳健型投资者买入时机。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> 投资者在正确把握好三重底的介入时机买入股票后，就需要掌握三重底的最佳卖出价位。这需要研判三重底的上涨力度并推算大致的上涨空间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> ■三重底的上涨力度</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">三重底的上涨力度，主要取决于以下因素：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股价从三重底的第三个底部上升时，成交量是否能持续性温和放大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股价在向上突破颈线位的瞬间时成交量是否能够迅速放大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">三重底的低点到颈线位的距离。距离越远，形态形成后的上攻力度越强。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股价在底部的盘旋时间，通常股价在底部盘旋的越久，其上涨力度越大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> 例如：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">600747</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">大显股份分别在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2003</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">27</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">29</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日三天形成了三次探底过程。该股的三次探底动作，在相互之间的时间跨度大致相等，而且三次探底的低点位置也比较接近，分别是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.23</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.19</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.25</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元，高低仅有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.06</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元的差距，完全符合三重底的基本技术要求。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月中旬，大显股份放量突破三重底的颈线位置。此后，该股逆势强劲上涨，在股指下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">多点的期间，该股竟然上涨了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">％多。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p>
秋风
发表于 2007-10-30 22:31
天天玩股其乐无穷
发表于 2007-10-30 23:09
石门
发表于 2007-10-31 12:28
学习当中！
股尖上奔跑
发表于 2007-11-3 21:30
学习
股尖上奔跑
发表于 2007-11-3 21:30
学习
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