[原创]●●10月31日大盘总结:关注PMI和美国议息！●● - 顺手黑马 - 股票之声

顺手黑马 发表于 2010-11-1 08:58

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>――――――――――――――――――――――――――――<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>一、后市分析：<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 30.1pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 30.1pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left>本周冲高回落，再现震荡走势，周线收出一颗星，对上证来说已经是两颗星。<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 30.1pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 30.1pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left>（一）、消息面：<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>    <o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 22.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5" align=left> 下周重要经济事件：<o:p></o:p>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">11月1日</st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">(周一)：中国物流与采购联合会今日公布10月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)；<o:p></o:p>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">美国发布10月份供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数。<o:p></o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="2" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">11月2日</st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">(周二)：美国联邦储备委员会公开市场委员会召开议息会议。<o:p></o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="3" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">11月3日</st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">(周三)：第二届中国清洁能源国际峰会<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="3" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">11月3日</st1:chsdate>至4日在北京召开。<o:p></o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="4" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">11月4日</st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">(周四)：美联储公开市场委员会公布利率决议和政策声明。<o:p></o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2010" Month="11" Day="5" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">11月5日</st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">(周五)：美国发布10月份失业率。<o:p></o:p>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">    下周最重要的两件事情就是周一的PMI和周二晚间美国议息，这两件事情将短期影响股市的走势，中长期我们继续认为加息预告了新一轮加息周期会带动股指上涨。<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 19.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 30.1pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left>（二）、技术面：<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN"><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 32.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">1、本周股指震荡回落上证和沪深300的MACD越来越接近，如果10月PMI数据比较理想，继续上升，美国继续不加息，市场就会继续腾空而起或者从死叉快速转为金叉，继续上攻，然后【未来一个月左右，股指都将在横盘震荡中度过】，为年底12月份左右启动的年报行情做好转换；<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 32.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN"><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 32.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">2、如果数据不理想，10月PMI回落，周一股指就会长阴促成上证MACD死叉，随后股指就会出现一次死叉之后的向上回抽组合，不过总体上进入震荡调整阶段，股指已经运行在一个月左右的横盘震荡过程中，为年底12月份左右启动的年报行情做好转换。<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 32.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN"><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 40.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">鉴于上述两个重要事件，所以下周一PMI和和周二议息之后的周三就是两个重要的转折点。<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 40.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN"><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 40.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">十二五规划受益新能源为主的七大板块已经在不断火热，业绩大幅增长的个股也在结构性上涨，我们更加相信 ——<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">2011年4月份前的2010年年报行情将是一轮奢侈大餐盛宴，业绩大涨的板块和个股将是主流，同样，新能源的部分分支将会和它们共同成就这轮奢侈大餐盛宴。<o:p></o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 40.15pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN"><o:p> </o:p>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-line-height-alt: 12.5pt; tab-stops: 36.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''''''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">二、基本面：<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="10" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">10月25日</st1:chsdate>：<o:p></o:p>
1）、G20承诺不打汇率战中国IMF份额由第六升至第三；2）、综述：道指收跌0.1% 纳指收高0.8%；3）、秦皇岛煤价单月飙涨7% 五大电企再濒亏损边缘；4）、汽车业十二五规划重点发展新能源车；5）、美国301调查指向我国新能源补贴；6）、房产税试点或于明年3月前出台。<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="10" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">10月26日</st1:chsdate>：<o:p></o:p>
1）、能源局：四季度用电增速将进一步回落；2）、发展改革委小幅上调汽柴油价格；3）、棉糖稻油等全线涨价通胀火上浇油；4）、综述：美元疲软推动美股继续攀升；5）、工信部推进信息产业发展。<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="10" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">10月27日</st1:chsdate>：<o:p></o:p>
1）、农产品价格高歌猛进通胀压力加大；2）、千亿锂电产业提速宜春“锂都”谁领衔；3）、美股收盘：道指涨5点纳指涨6点；4）、环保等重大技术装备进口税收调整；5）、中国检出三超级细菌病例；6）、八家航空公司今起上调燃油附加费。<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="10" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">10月28日</st1:chsdate>：<o:p></o:p>
1）、国务院部署年末经济工作物价房价成重点；2）、综述：道指跌0.39% 纳指涨0.24%；3）、证监会将支持文化企业并购重组；4）、基础零部件业振兴方案出台上市公司将挑大梁。<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:chsdate Year="2008" Month="10" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False" w:st="on">10月29日</st1:chsdate>：<o:p></o:p>
1）、秋粮丰收却遇凶悍游资食品涨价平添通胀变数；2）、首套房贷最低利率上调至8.5折；银监会警示：严控大型房企贷款风险；3）、险资三季度2000亿跑步入市尚余4000亿可用；4）、综述：道指连续第2个交易日下跌；5）、车联网将列为国家重大专项。<o:p></o:p>
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">三、今日领涨：<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>

章之铃 发表于 2010-11-1 08:59

对顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶的

夏雨儿 发表于 2010-11-1 09:08

顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶顶

枫枫发表于 2010-11-1 09:15

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枫枫发表于 2010-11-1 09:15

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枫枫发表于 2010-11-1 09:16

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红胜火 发表于 2010-11-1 09:21

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一路涨停 发表于 2010-11-1 09:26

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春风得意呀 发表于 2010-11-1 11:43

谢谢黑马老师！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！

海洋微风 发表于 2010-11-1 21:35

谢谢黑马老师分析！

海洋微风 发表于 2010-11-1 21:43

不知何因，回帖回不了？有时能回也很慢？

梦卿发表于 2010-11-1 21:56

谢谢黑马老师分析！

好收成 发表于 2010-11-1 22:28

阿华发表于 2010-11-1 22:28

随势发表于 2010-11-2 00:29

都是一个月的横盘振荡。

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